To Oscars or Not To Oscars

I think the Oscars are a bit of a joke and I haven't taken them seriously since I was a child. It's a popularity contest gauged by what studio can throw the most money at a marketing campaign and lick the Academy's boots the cleanest.

I do think it's cool when artists are recognized for their outstanding work, giving them more freedom to pursue bigger projects with higher autonomy, but I'd put more stock in the “Big Five” film festivals (Berlin, Cannes, Sundance, TIFF, Venice) than ANY industry awards gala.

Compounding my annoyance is the growing trend of what I'd like to coin “Super-Noms” where a single film racks up a large number of nominations. To me, this isn't actually signifying of this single film's dominance over every aspect of filmmaking, but rather illustrative of the buying power of these large-scale marketing campaigns.

Smaller indie films simply aren't able to compete against the prestige titles, which leaves much less room for recognizing emerging talent or under-seen gems. To showcase my point, here's a pie-chart I made of this year's nominations (excluding documentaries, animated film, original song, and shorts).

75% of the nominations in this year's Oscars are comprised of only EIGHT FILMS, with 15 other films comprising the remaining 25%.

Compare that to:

2014, where that 75% was comprised of 13 films out of a grand total of 31.

Or 1999, where it took 17 films to fill that top 75% out of a whopping 37 nominees.

Even all the way back in 1980, it's still fairly in line with what we saw 10 years ago. 14 films making up the top 75% of noms out of 31.

But you look back in the last decade — particularly since COVID — and the number of nominees seems to be shrinking, and a handful of films seem to be snapping up all the major nominations. And in the case of films like Anora and EEAAO, they end up snapping up the wins too.

Can't wait until the year where every nominee is a film from Disney, Paramount, and Neon.

But anywhoo… Rant over. Here are my picks for this year's awards.

BEST PICTURE

• "Bugonia"
• "F1"
• "Frankenstein"
• "Hamnet"
• "Marty Supreme"
• "One Battle After Another"
• "The Secret Agent"
• "Sentimental Value"
• "Sinners"
• "Train Dreams"

My Prediction: One Battle After Another

BEST ACTRESS

• Jessie Buckley, "Hamnet"
• Rose Byrne, "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"
• Renate Reinsve, "Sentimental Value"
• Emma Stone, "Bugonia"
• Kate Hudson, "Song Sung Blue"

My Prediction: Jessie Buckley

BEST ACTOR

• Timothée Chalamet, "Marty Supreme"
• Leonardo DiCaprio, "One Battle After Another"
• Ethan Hawke, "Blue Moon"
• Michael B. Jordan, "Sinners"
• Wagner Moura, "The Secret Agent"

My Prediction: Michael B. Jordan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Elle Fanning, "Sentimental Value"
• Inga Ibsdotter LilIeaas, "Sentimental Value"
• Amy Madigan, "Weapons"
• Wunmi Mosaku, "Sinners"
• Teyana Taylor, "One Battle After Another"

My Prediction: Teyana Taylor

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Jacob Elordi, "Frankenstein"
• Sean Penn, "One Battle After Another"
• Stellan Skarsgård, "Sentimental Value"
• Benicio del Toro, "One Battle After Another"
• Delroy Lindo, "Sinners"

My Prediction: Sean Penn

DIRECTOR

• Paul Thomas Anderson, "One Battle After Another"
• Ryan Coogler, "Sinners"
• Chloé Zhao, "Hamnet"
• Josh Safdie, "Marty Supreme"
• Joachim Trier, "Sentimental Value"

My Prediction: PTA

ORIGINAL SONG

• "Golden" from "Kpop Demon Hunters"
• "Train Dreams" from "Train Dreams"
• "Dear Me" from "Diane Warren: Relentless"
• "I Lied To You" from "Sinners"
• "Sweet Dreams Of Joy" from "Viva Verdi!"

My Prediction: “Golden”

ORIGINAL SCORE

• "Bugonia," Jerskin Fendrix
• "Frankenstein," Alexandre Desplate
• "Hamnet," Max Richter
• "One Battle After Another," Jonny Greenwood
• "Sinners," Ludwig Göransson

My Prediction: Sinners

ANIMATED FILM

• "Arco"
• "Elio"
• "KPop Demon Hunters"
• "Little Amélie or the Character of Rain"
• "Zootopia 2"

My Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters

INTERNATIONAL FILM

• "The Secret Agent," Brazil
• "It Was Just an Accident," France
• "Sentimental Value," Norway
• "Sirât," Spain
• "The Voice of Hind Rajab," Tunisia

My Prediction: Sentimental Value

DOCUMENTARY FILM

• "The Perfect Neighbor"
• "The Alabama Solution"
• "Come See Me in the Good Light"
• "Cutting Through Rocks"
• "Mr. Nobody Against Putin"

My Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor

BEST CASTING

• "Hamnet"
• "Marty Supreme"
• "One Battle After Another"
• "The Secret Agent"
• "Sinners"

My Prediction: One Battle After Another

BEST SOUND

• "F1"
• "Frankenstein"
• "One Battle after Another"
• "Sinners"
• "Sirāt"

My Prediction: F1

CINEMATOGRAPHY

• "Frankenstein"
• "Marty Supreme"
• "One Battle After Another"
• "Sinners"
• "Train Dreams"

My Prediction: One Battle After Another

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• "Blue Moon," Robert Kaplow
• "It Was Just an Accident," Jafar Panahi, with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
• "Marty Supreme," Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
• "Sentimental Value," Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
• "Sinners," Ryan Coogler

My Prediction: Sentimental Value

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• "Bugonia"; Will Tracy
• "Frankenstein," Guillermo del Toro
• "Hamnet," Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell
• "One Battle After Another," Paul Thomas Anderson
• "Train Dreams," Clint Bailey and Greg Kwedar

My Prediction: One Battle After Another

VISUAL EFFECTS

• "Avatar: Fire and Ash"
• "F1″
• "Jurassic World Rebirth"
• "The Lost Bus"
• "Sinners"

My Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash

PRODUCTION DESIGN

• "Frankenstein"
• "Hamnet"
• "Marty Supreme"
• "One Battle After Another"
• "Sinners"

My Prediction: Frankenstein

FILM EDITING

• "F1"
• "Marty Supreme"
• "One Battle After Another"
• "Sentimental Value"
• "Sinners"

My Prediction: One Battle After Another

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

• "Frankenstein"
• "Kokuho"
• "Sinners"
• "The Smashing Machine"
• "The Ugly Stepsister"

My Prediction: Frankenstein

COSTUME DESIGN

• "Avatar: Fire and Ash"
• "Frankenstein"
• "Hamnet"
• "Marty Supreme"
• "Sinners"

My Prediction: Frankenstein